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Regulation and clever accounting will help many pundits justify and push these technologies, but in order to drive the necessary resource multiplication, we need to (and can) reinvent the infrastructure of society through the creation of Black Swan energy technologies.
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The looming twin challenges of climate change and energy production are too big to be tackled by known solutions and time-‐honored traditions.
Incremental remedies are fine for incremental problems, but they are insufficient for monumental, potentially life-‐altering threats, which need to be approached with a disruptive mindset.These thoughts are noble, and occasionally work, but distract from our best “broad” hope: robust unsubsidized market competitiveness of “green” technologies against their fossil competitors.This should be the mantra and goal of Black Swan technology development.We need non-‐linear jumps in technologies – Technological Black Swans! Environmentalists have done a superb job identifying the problem, but often push impractical idealistic solutions at high cost or inconvenience to consumers.I believe that capitalism and self-‐interest driven models of new technology adoption are the lowest risk way to achieve a low carbon social infrastructure and plentiful energy.In fact, the mindset of clean energy always costing more can be turned completely on its head in many, even most, areas; economic energy-‐focused innovations could save consumers hundreds of billions over the next 10 to 15 years!My basic thesis is that investment in true innovation is the key to reinventing the infrastructure of society and enabling 5 billion people to sustainably live the energy affluent lifestyle that 500 million enjoy today.There is a lot of error in estimating tail probabilities and they tend to be systematically underweighted, particularly in complex systems.Thus, with several thousand Black Swan technology “shots on goal,” where most predict that each individual shot will fail, I predict we’ll see at least 10 incredible successes.After all, the logic of business is to externalize as many costs (like using public roads or not reducing emissions) and maximize profits, as it should be.“Green” should be a feature that follows – rather than defies – the “laws of economic gravity,” which in essence declares that economics trump everything when it comes to mass adoption of a technology.