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European states dependent on Russian energy grumble; a former German chancellor working in natural gas says his country’s interests lie with Moscow.

Then, say, an independence movement of the Russian minority gains momentum in Estonia, backed with plausible deniability by Moscow’s agents, and announces support for the Donetsk People’s Republic.

It will hold nationalism in check even as the Asian naval arms race accelerates.

Unlike in 1914 or 1939, the presence of large American garrisons in Europe and Asia sustains a tenacious Pax Americana.

This has proved a powerful deterrent against potential adversaries.

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Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, has been most aggressive in the no-man’s-lands of Georgia and Ukraine, nations suspended between East and West, neither one a member of When a 19-year-old Bosnian Serb nationalist, Gavrilo Princip, assassinated the heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne in Sarajevo, on June 28, 1914, he acted to secure Serbia’s liberty from imperial dominion.China dispatches a small force to what it calls the Diaoyu Islands “as a protective measure.” Japan sends four destroyers to evict the Chinese and reminds the American president that he has said the islands, located near undersea oil reserves, “fall within the scope” of the U.S.-Japan Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security.That was the case in Germany after the Treaty of Versailles imposed reparations and territorial concessions; so, too, in Serbia more than 70 years later, after the breakup of Yugoslavia, a country Serbia had always viewed as an extension of itself.Russia, convinced of its lost greatness, is gripped by a Weimar neurosis resembling Germany’s post–World War I longing for its past stature and power. in dark imaginings, then, in the cause of prudence.Optimism, toward which Americans are generally inclined, leads to rash predictions of history’s ending in global consensus and the banishment of war.Such rosy views accompanied the end of the Cold War.A Republican senator, echoing the bellicose mood in Washington, declares that “Estonia is more than a couple of rocks in the East China Sea” and demands to know whether “the United States has torn up the treaty alliances in Europe and Asia that have been the foundation of global security since 1945.” The president gives China an ultimatum to leave the Japanese islands or face a military response.He also tells Russia that another act of secessionist violence in Estonia will trigger force against Russian troops massed on the Estonian border. Chinese and Russian leaders accuse the United States of “prolonging Cold War hostilities and alliances in pursuit of global domination.” World War III begins. Peace, if not outright pacifism, is now bred in the bones of Europeans, who contemplate war with revulsion. America, after two wars without victory, is in a period of retrenchment that may last a generation.useful prism through which to view the affairs of states.Their ambition to gain, retain, and project power is never sated.